Fergus Watch – Outlook 2012

Jan 02, 12 Fergus Watch – Outlook 2012

Posted by in Musings, Personal finance

Some of you may know, I work in the financial industry, and I usually write emails to some people for their reading entertainment. Here’s one that I wrote a while back, on my outlook of 2012. Originally sent out 26 December 2011. One of the things I wanted to do for this email was to amalgamate some of the views I have as well as others that I have discussed with. In a way, a snippet of things that happened this year, and what it means for the year ahead. That is, the outlook for 2012. 2011, the watershed year 2011 has definitely been a watershed year in more ways than one. We have the General Elections, we have Orchard Road floodings, we have MRTs breaking down dramatically, we have numerous dead bodies found in reservoirs, we have a new record price for properties, we have our 2 Integrated Resorts, numerous new shopping malls and numerous new office buildings in the CBD. We also have Lee Kuan Yew leaving active politics. In a way, 2011 is really extraordinary. How can so many things happen in the same year? Suay? Heng? Or is the world really ending in 2012? Complacency is a downfall of the Singapore model? Some of the viewpoints I have been hearing about is if the Singapore model is good to go for the next decade? In the last 10 years, the biggest issue in Singapore was.. no issue. We have taken a lot of things for granted. Things were meant to work. Jobs will be available as long as you studied to the best of your ability. We will always have housing, we will always have cheap transport, we will have accessibility to anything you want to buy. This has also affected the policy makers. Why fix things if there is nothing broken? Thus, I would say the last 5 years has been one of complacency. There has been some lack of foresight and planning. After all, you pay senior management primarily...

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Greece’s doomed generation and the good fortunes of Singaporeans

May 12, 11 Greece’s doomed generation and the good fortunes of Singaporeans

Posted by in General

Read an article on The Guardian recently about ‘Greece’s doomed generation‘. It basically talks about how Greece is hit with all the Austerity measures imposed by IMF after they  hit the economic crisis in 2009/2010. Somehow, the more ‘developed’ you become as a nation, the less you are willing to give up. This seems to resonate with me in the recent Singapore GE, and this article. In the 1996-1998 asian economic crisis, the Thai, Indonesian, Vietnam, even Malaysia and Singapore got hit by a sudden crash in the currencies. Thailand and Indonesian were the worst hit. IMF imposed measures and controls on the Government then in order to rein in spending. Essentially, that means they gave the reins of the economy to an external party, who’s job is just to cut your spending. The citizens of these country then went through pain, because budgets were cut, non-essential services were restrained. Now we see the same in Greece because they have fallen hard from grace. The difference is that because of a higher education level, and that they are used to the material comforts in life, there is massive protests. I went to my favourite site, wikipedia, to look up on Greece and Singapore. It’s amazing how similar they are in terms of economy! Greece Singapore GDP $302 billion $235 bilion GDP per capita $29,240.00 $50,300.00 GDP by sector 4% agriculture 17.6% industry 78.5% services 0% agriculture 26.8% industry 73.2% services Labour force 5.05 million 3.03 million Public Debt 142.8% of GDP 117.6% of GDP Foreign Reserves $5.546 billion $187.8 billion   Their demise came out simply because of falling state revenue and increasing government expenditures. How fast the ball changes. The  Singapore GE that just ended made me wonder. We are like Greece, with no natural resources (typically), relying on a few economic engines and largely the services industry, but otherwise, essentially nothing to fall back on. I hope I would never have to see the day that Singapore falls from grace. Before 2008,...

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A simple lesson on economics, capitalism, taxes, the government, and you!

Apr 14, 11 A simple lesson on economics, capitalism, taxes, the government, and you!

Posted by in General

Not sure who’s the real author of this, but it’s quite a layman way of explaining tax and it’s effects. Let’s put tax cuts in terms everyone can understand. Suppose that every day, ten men go out for dinner. The bill for all ten comes to $100. If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this: The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing. The fifth would pay $1. The sixth would pay $3. The seventh $7. The eighth $12. The ninth $18. The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.   So, that’s what they decided to do. The ten men ate dinner in the restaurant every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve. “Since you are all such good customers,” he said, “I’m going to reduce the cost of your daily meal by $20.” So, now dinner for the ten only cost $80. The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes. So, the first four men were unaffected. They would still eat for free. But what about the other six, the paying customers? How could they divvy up the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his ‘fair share’? The six men realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody’s share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being ‘PAID’ to eat their meal. So, the restaurant owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man’s bill by roughly the same amount, and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay. And so: The fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100% savings). The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33% savings). The seventh now paid $5 instead of $7 (28% savings). The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% savings). The ninth now paid $14 instead...

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Filing your income tax in Singapore

Apr 11, 11 Filing your income tax in Singapore

Posted by in General

April is the month where we pay our dues. That’s right! It’s time to file our income tax! For Singapore this year, the deadline is 15th April 2011 for paper filing, and 18th April 2011 for e-filing. Besides people who are not very savvy with computers, everybody should be doing electronic filing via the IRAS website! As always, there is the tax calculator provided by IRAS. Main thing to note is the 20% one off personal tax rebate this year. Yay! There’s going to be a change of tax bracket for next year’s income tax. From the table of changes, it benefits all tax payers, but the biggest benefit goes to the middle income earner. (ie, the $40k to 160k per annum chargeable income range). Another new feature this year is the estimated tax payable after you finished your e-filing. Previously, when you filed your taxes, you won’t know how much you gotta pay, until  you get the tax bill. Now, they have it displayed so that you won’t get a shock later. My company is in the auto-inclusion scheme. So basically all the details are already electronically submitted to IRAS. On top of that, I was actually in the no-filing service. This means, I don’t even have to e-file. However, I had to include some new reliefs. I believe we should not evade taxes. But on the other hand, we should always try to minimise our tax bill legitimately using legal methods provided for in the system. The most common ways is through incorporation of a business, and claiming of reliefs. Incorporation is probably only for the self-employed with high cash flow, else it wouldn’t make sense anyway. For individuals, we should always know what we can claim in reliefs. Aside from parents/child/sibling/NS relief, the most common 3 for the working employee is course fee relief, donations, and SRS contribution. I can’t remember for sure, but I think the government just increased course fee relief to $5500 per annum! That means if you attended a...

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Open letter to Singapore Exchange regarding Continuous all-day trading

Nov 10, 10 Open letter to Singapore Exchange regarding Continuous all-day trading

Posted by in General

With regards to Singapore Exchange’s public consultation on continuous all-day trading, I have a few personal reservations about it. Below is my open letter. I believe continuous all-day trading is not necessary in the Singapore market, or most other Asian stock markets in general as the benefits are not necessarily more than the disadvantages that come with it. Unlike in US, brokerage firms play a key role in the eco-system here. In US, unless you pay top money for a full service broker, you would probably end up using a discount broker, which do not have a trading representative tied to the account. The reason why this can happen is because risk management can be calculated and computerised. This is largely due to the difference in evolution of equities trading and trading account management. In Singapore, contra trading is common. Deposits by clients, if any, tend to be around 20% to 50% of the trading limit, as opposed to 100% in most US brokers. Thus, trading representatives play a very important role as risk managers as they are usually the ones who underwrite the credit risk of the clients. Business in general tends to be conducted very differently in Asia as compared to the Western countries. In Asia, people tend to cultivate a more informal relationship while pursuing a business relationship. It is because of that you hear the common phrase ‘guan xi’. This is no different in Singapore. While trading and execution is a significant part of the job, trading representatives spend a large amount of time meeting up with clients over meals and having casual chats. Besides meeting clients, trading representatives also have to juggle with attending analyst briefings, luncheon presentations, or simply just catching up with the latest news. For a trading representative who is committed to providing quality service, one would be reluctant to leave his trading desk during market hours. As such, most of such activities happen when the market is closed, such as before market, during lunch hour, or after market. For established brokers, some of them would hire trading assistants, so that they can devote more time...

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